Can Florida State Win Out? Examining the Seminoles’ Final Five Games
Florida State enters the final five games of the regular season at 3–4, leaving almost no room for another extended slump.
The Seminoles would finish 8–4 by winning out. They need three victories to reach six wins and become bowl eligible, while a 4–1 finish would produce a respectable 7–5 record after a difficult first half of the season.
Winning all five is possible, but it is not the most likely outcome. Florida State has shown a high enough ceiling to compete with every remaining opponent. The problem has been sustaining that level of play for four quarters.
The 43–35 double-overtime loss at No. 3 Miami showed both sides of the argument. Florida State produced 443 yards, Ashton Daniels threw for 298 yards and four touchdowns, and Duce Robinson made the biggest plays of his season.
However, the Seminoles also allowed 583 yards, went 0-for-3 on fourth down and could not finish the game after taking a lead in the first overtime.
That performance proved Florida State is capable of competing with a top team.
The Remaining Schedule
Florida State’s final five opponents are Clemson, Boston College, Pitt, NC State and Florida.
Three of those games will be played at Doak Campbell Stadium, while the Seminoles must travel to face Boston College and Pitt in consecutive weeks.
Clemson: The Start
Florida State’s chances of winning out will either gain credibility or end immediately against Clemson.
The Tigers are 4–3 and have been inconsistent this season. They were overwhelmed 41–13 by Miami and are coming off a 20–16 loss to Virginia Tech.
Clemson still has enough defensive talent to make Florida State earn every drive, but this is not an unbeatable version of the Tigers. Clemson has thrown only two touchdown passes this season, placing its passing attack among the least productive in the country.
The Seminoles have two advantages: the game is in Tallahassee, and they will have had two weeks to prepare. Florida State is 3–1 at home and 0–3 away.
If Daniels protects the football and the defense prevents Clemson from controlling the game on the ground, Florida State should have a legitimate opportunity to begin the closing stretch with a victory.
Boston College: A Dangerous Road Test
Boston College is easy to overlook on paper, but the Eagles have won two consecutive games and are 3–1 at home. Their 49–27 victory at Georgia Tech showed they can create explosive plays when they find an offensive rhythm.
This matchup will test whether Florida State can finally take its game on the road. The Seminoles have lost at Alabama, Louisville and Miami. Two of those losses came by at least 14 points, while the Miami defeat required a comeback just to reach overtime.
The Seminoles have not won a true road game in nearly three years.
Florida State has more explosive talent on the perimeter, but Boston College has been the steadier team recently. This matchup could be much closer than many people expect. I believe it may be the toughest game remaining outside of Florida.
Pitt: Another Road Test
Pitt enters the closing stretch at 5–3 after losing three consecutive games, including a 52–23 defeat at Miami. The Panthers are trending in the wrong direction, but they are still 4–1 at home.
Pitt also lost starting quarterback Mason Heintschel for the remainder of the season after he suffered a torn ACL against Virginia Tech.
The Friday-night setting creates a short week after Florida State travels to Boston College. Winning consecutive road games in six days would require the Seminoles to display a level of consistency away from home that they have not shown in nearly three years.
Pitt is vulnerable, especially if Florida State can contain the running game and force backup quarterback Holden Geriner to beat the defense through the air.
NC State: The Game FSU Must Win
NC State is 3–4 and has lost three of its last four games. The Wolfpack have been competitive, but they have also allowed at least 31 points in four games.
NC State also recently relieved longtime head coach Dave Doeren of his duties after 14 seasons leading the program.
This appears to be the most favorable matchup remaining for Florida State. It will be played at Doak Campbell Stadium, and the Seminoles should have opportunities to create explosive plays through Daniels, Robinson, Micahi Danzy and Jayvan Boggs.
If Florida State wants to reach a bowl game, this is one it cannot afford to give away.
Florida: A Rivalry Game With Everything at Stake
The regular-season finale is the biggest obstacle. Florida is 5–2 and ranked No. 17 after earning a 27–24 road victory over Texas. The Gators have already demonstrated they can win a close game against a quality opponent.
Florida State will have home-field advantage, and rivalry games rarely follow a predictable script. If the Seminoles enter the finale on a winning streak, the pressure could shift toward Florida.
However, the Gators are the more complete team right now. Florida State cannot expect to win by relying only on Daniels to create late-game magic. The defense must limit explosive plays, and the rushing attack must remain functional without season-leading rusher Ousmane Kromah.
What Must Change for FSU to Win Out?
Finish drives. Florida State went 0-for-3 on fourth down against Miami. In close games, empty possessions can determine the outcome. Mike Norvell must also be willing to take the points in certain fourth-down situations in the red zone.
Find a dependable running game. Quintrevion Wisner produced 119 yards from scrimmage against Miami, but replacing Kromah will require more than one player. Wisner, Amari Thomas and Daniels must give the offense enough balance to prevent opposing defenses from focusing entirely on the passing game.
Stop allowing explosive plays. Louisville and Miami combined to score 87 points against Florida State. The defense does not need to dominate every opponent, but it cannot continue forcing the offense to chase the game.
Win away from Tallahassee. A perfect finish requires victories at Boston College and Pitt. Until the Seminoles win a road game, the idea of winning out remains more hope than expectation.
Final Verdict
Florida State has a chance to win every remaining game, but that is different from having a strong chance to win all five.
A 5–0 finish is achievable if the performance against Miami becomes the standard and the Seminoles solve their problems on the road. A 3–2 finish is the more realistic target and would get Florida State to bowl eligibility.
My early prediction is that Florida State finishes 4–1 over its final five games and ends the regular season at 7–5.
The path to 8–4 exists. The Seminoles have enough talent to make it interesting. But before Florida State can talk seriously about winning out, it has to beat Clemson.