Five Keys for Florida State to Defeat No. 3 Miami

Florida State has an opportunity to pull off the biggest upset of the season Saturday night.

The Seminoles travel to Hard Rock Stadium to face undefeated No. 3 Miami in one of college football’s biggest rivalries. FSU enters the matchup looking to find something positive after a disappointing 44–20 loss at Louisville.

Miami will be heavily favored, but as Texas–Oklahoma showed last week, anything can happen in a rivalry game. Here are five keys for Florida State to pull off the upset.

1. Respond to Adversity

Florida State must show that it can respond when adversity strikes—something the Seminoles have not done well this season.

FSU started fast against Louisville and built a 14–0 lead, but the game completely changed after the Seminoles failed to score on fourth-and-goal. Louisville answered with a 97-yard touchdown drive, and Florida State never regained control.

Difficult moments are going to happen against Miami. FSU cannot allow one mistake to become several.

The Seminoles must remain composed and prevent things from falling apart if they want a chance to keep this game close.

2. Do Not Let Malachi Toney Take Over the Game

Florida State cannot allow Malachi Toney to beat the defense by himself.

Toney is a dangerous playmaker who can create problems whenever the ball is in his hands. FSU must prevent Miami from repeatedly getting him the ball in space, where he is at his best and capable of creating havoc.

The Seminoles should force Miami to establish its running game instead of allowing Toney and the Hurricanes’ passing attack to control the game. That may require FSU to double-team Toney in certain situations and constantly account for where he lines up.

Limiting Toney would force Miami to rely on its other weapons to consistently move the ball down the field.

3. Get Duce Robinson, Micahi Danzy and Jayvan Boggs Involved

Florida State must find ways to involve Duce Robinson, Micahi Danzy and Jayvan Boggs in the passing game.

All three receivers bring something different to the offense. Robinson provides size and the ability to win contested catches, Danzy has the speed to create explosive plays, and Boggs has been one of FSU’s most productive receiving options this season.

The Seminoles cannot allow Miami to focus entirely on stopping the rushing attack. Ashton Daniels needs to distribute the ball, attack favorable one-on-one matchups and give his receivers opportunities to make plays.

Quick passes could also help Daniels settle into the game while slowing down Miami’s pass rush. If FSU can consistently involve all three receivers, the offense will become much more difficult to defend.

4. Establish Ousmane Kromah Early

Ousmane Kromah must be a major part of Florida State’s offensive game plan from the opening drive.

Kromah has shown that he can contribute as both a runner and receiver. Against Louisville, he produced 131 yards from scrimmage and remained one of the few consistent bright spots for the Seminoles.

Florida State needs to establish Kromah early, but that cannot mean repeatedly running him directly into the middle of Miami’s defense. The Seminoles should use outside runs, screens and passes out of the backfield to put him in favorable situations where he can create damage.

A productive running game would help FSU control the clock, stay ahead of the chains and keep Miami’s explosive offense on the sideline. It would also create more manageable situations for Daniels and open opportunities in the passing game.

5. Limit Miami’s Explosive Plays

Florida State cannot surrender the explosive plays that have hurt its defense throughout the season.

The Seminoles struggled to finish tackles and contain Louisville running back Isaac Brown, who rushed for 235 yards. Miami has even more players capable of turning one missed assignment into a touchdown.

The first defender to the ball must complete the tackle instead of allowing a short gain to become an explosive, game-changing play.

Florida State may not be able to completely shut down Miami’s offense, but it must force the Hurricanes to earn their points through long drives.

Could This Be Mike Norvell’s Final Game at Florida State?

Saturday’s result could carry consequences extending far beyond Florida State’s record.

A growing amount of noise from insiders and people around the program has fueled rumors that Mike Norvell could be fired as soon as Sunday if the Seminoles suffer an embarrassing loss to Miami.

However, no official decision has been announced, and other reports indicate that Florida State may be unlikely to make a coaching change during the season. Norvell’s enormous buyout and the uncertainty surrounding the school’s athletic department would make an immediate move complicated.

Still, another blowout loss—especially against an undefeated in-state rival—would only increase the pressure surrounding the program. FSU is 10–20 since the beginning of the 2024 season and has struggled badly away from Tallahassee during that stretch, failing to win a road game.

A competitive performance could give Norvell an opportunity to buy more time as the head coach, but a blowout loss could result in the end of his tenure.

Final Thoughts

Florida State will need its most complete performance of the season to have a chance of defeating No. 3 Miami.

The Seminoles must respond to adversity, contain Malachi Toney, involve their top receivers, establish Kromah and eliminate explosive plays. Accomplishing those five goals would give FSU an opportunity to keep the game close entering the fourth quarter.

If the Seminoles can do that, the pressure will shift toward Miami—and anything can happen in this rivalry.